Lesson 5.2 — Cost-Benefit Analysis: Costs, Benefits, NPV & Risk
This lesson covers the full mechanics of a business case CBA: how to identify and categorise benefits and costs, how to calculate Net Present Value (NPV), and how to assess and mitigate risk.
What you will learn:
— Step 2 — Benefits: Internal (cost reductions, efficiency improvements, quality improvements, risk reduction) and External (environmental, social, economic). Tip: always strive to assign a monetary value to qualitative benefits — even rough estimates make the business case stronger
— Real examples: Niguarda Hospital PCP — €921,600/year savings in personnel costs, €750,000 investment recovered in under 1 year; Transport for London PPI — 50% total cost savings over 8 years, with biggest savings from reduced labour (not energy)
— Step 3 — Costs: (1) Project & Procurement Costs (prior art analysis, OMC, tender preparation, contract management — often EU-funded in PCP); (2) CAPEX (equipment, R&D investment, hardware, software, IP acquisition); (3) OPEX (staffing, maintenance, licences, subscriptions — recurring over the solution lifetime)
— Step 4 — NPV: NPV = Σ (Bt − Ct) / (1 + r)t. NPV > 0 = project creates value; NPV < 0 = reconsider. Worked example (one end-user, 5 years, 3.5% discount rate): NPV = +€31,498 — barely positive; extending the horizon or adding buyers group members makes it strongly positive (>€2M+)
— Step 5 — Risk Assessment: five risk types (Technical, Financial, Operational, Market, Political/Legal); for each: evaluate Likelihood, Impact, and Mitigation strategy. PCP advantage: phased competitive approach inherently reduces R&D risk
— Exercise timeline: Years 0–2 PCP (no benefits); Year 3 PPI/implementation (rollout costs; benefits from Year 4); Years 4–8 Operations (recurring OPEX; strongest benefits). Year 0 = start of PCP R&D, not purchase of a finished solution

